run: bun run test:run
- name: Restore Astro image cache
- uses: actions/cache@v4
+ uses: actions/cache@v5
with:
path: .astro-cache
key: astro-images-${{ hashFiles('src/assets/**/*') }}
astro-images-
- name: Restore OpenGraph image cache
- uses: actions/cache@v4
+ uses: actions/cache@v5
with:
path: .og-cache
key: og-images-${{ hashFiles('src/content/**/*') }}
run: bun run build
- name: Upload artifact
- uses: actions/upload-pages-artifact@v3
+ uses: actions/upload-pages-artifact@v4
with:
path: dist/
---
-title: "Bitcoin Mempools Cleared: Is Nobody Using Bitcoin?"
+title: 'Bitcoin Mempools Cleared: Is Nobody Using Bitcoin?'
date: 2025-02-09
modified: 2025-10-24
description: Bitcoin mempools have cleared before and there's no immediate reason to panic.
tags:
-- bitcoin
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1889014482145579457
---
+
import { Picture } from 'astro:assets';
import Callout from '@components/ui/callout.astro';
import Figure from '@components/ui/figure.astro';
Here's the chart everyone was worried about, showing the dropoff in feerates:
-<Figure image={mempool1yr} alt="Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte over the last year" formats={['svg']}>
- Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte over the last year. Data from 2024-02-07 through 2025-02-07. Source: [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool#1y).
+<Figure
+ image={mempool1yr}
+ alt="Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte over the last year"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte over the last year. Data from 2024-02-07 through
+ 2025-02-07. Source: [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool#1y).
</Figure>
## Is this abnormal?
+
I wouldn't call empty mempools abnormal by any means. Zooming out the mempool chart's date range shows prior periods of low mempool utilization:
-<Figure image={mempoolAllTime} alt="Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte since beginning of data" formats={['svg']}>
- Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte since beginning of data. Data from beginning of dataset through 2025-02-07. Source: [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool#all).
+<Figure
+ image={mempoolAllTime}
+ alt="Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte since beginning of data"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Bitcoin mempool by sats/vByte since beginning of data. Data from beginning of
+ dataset through 2025-02-07. Source:
+ [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool#all).
</Figure>
If you overlay the Bitcoin/USD price chart with this, you'll notice the highest mempool utilization periods mostly align with runups to and during bull markets. I'd also point out that the most recent period of mempool activity reached higher feerates than prior periods largely due to BRC-20 tokens, Runes, and other NFT/NFT-like transactions.
## What were the concerns?
+
I selected posts that exemplified common themes from the concern posts I saw bubbling up on my feeds.
### Security Budget
+
> "In case you were confused, this is not a good thing. This is where mindless maxi hodl narratives lead, a network with less censorship resistance.
>
> Demand for blockspace (specifically black market) ultimately secures the #Bitcoin network from censorship. No fees, no security."
æon ties this into censorship resistance[^1] but the incentives for a decentralized miner (e.g., solo miner at home) are the same as a centralized miner.[^2] Even today, centralized miners benefit from scale, generally lower costs of energy due to negotiated rate contracts, and earlier access to ASICs which puts them at an advantage to the decentralized miner.
### Sovereign Disuse
+
> "An empty mempool is a sign that sovereign usage of Bitcoin is extremely low."
> — [@lopp](https://x.com/lopp/status/1885808221610291443)
And would bartering or exchanging Bitcoin for goods be considered even more sovereign? Those are transactions occurring completely off-chain.
### Hoarding
+
> "An empty mempool whispers what few want to hear—Bitcoin isn't circulating, it's being hoarded.
>
> Trades happen off-chain, value sits idle, and few price in sats. Until more goods, services, and wages abandon fiat entirely, the network will remain a vault rather than a thriving economy.
Similar to the sovereign disuse argument, I expect much of the day-to-day transaction volume is currently, and will be, on Lightning or off-chain. But yes, if more of the economy denominates in Bitcoin, we'll see more mempool usage as they settle on the base layer.
## Why shouldn't I panic?
+
### Relative Economic Incentives
+
The Bitcoin network's security budget is determined by the balance between the economic value at risk and the cost of attacking the network.
+
- In a low Bitcoin economic value environment, the potential payoff for a successful attack would shrink as well, limiting the incentive to attack.
- In a low fee, high Bitcoin economic value environment, then the economic value those fees represent could still be significant, keeping hashrate online and therefore also keeping the cost to attack the network high.
Regardless, attacking the network only makes sense if the attacker doesn't value Bitcoin, since a successful attack would crater Bitcoin's economic value. So the threat model for this theory would be: nation-state attacker(s) or highly organized and well-capitalized griefers[^3] attempt to destroy Bitcoin. Current Bitcoin users would need to be caught unaware by the attack so they couldn't bring their own hashrate online, multiple nation-states would likely collude to seize mining hardware and energy infrastructure so they control enough hashrate, those nation-states spend billions to keep the attack going, and while planning all this the nation-states still decide the cost of killing Bitcoin is worth it.[^4]
### Difficulty Adjustments
+
The relative economic incentives impacts miners' hashrate decision, which is more simply explained through hashprice.[^5] In a low fee environment, hashprice decreases, mining profitability decreases, eventually total hashrate decreases, but that in turn causes difficulty to decrease. The difficuly decrease counteracts the falling hashrate.
We haven't seen a significant decline in total hashrate, despite hashprice decreasing over the last few years, meaning miners haven't seen profitability decline enough that would force them to decrease their hashrate.
<Figure image={hashpriceIndex2yr} alt="Bitcoin hashprice over the last 2 years">
- Bitcoin hashprice over the last 2 years. Data from 2023-02-04 through 2025-02-08. Source: [Hashrate Index](https://data.hashrateindex.com/network-data/bitcoin-hashprice-index).
+ Bitcoin hashprice over the last 2 years. Data from 2023-02-04 through
+ 2025-02-08. Source: [Hashrate
+ Index](https://data.hashrateindex.com/network-data/bitcoin-hashprice-index).
</Figure>
-<Figure image={hashrate2yr} alt="Bitcoin hashrate over the last 2 years" formats={['svg']}>
- Bitcoin hashrate over the last 2 years. Data from 2023-02-08 through 2025-02-07. Source: [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/hashrate-difficulty#2y).
+<Figure
+ image={hashrate2yr}
+ alt="Bitcoin hashrate over the last 2 years"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Bitcoin hashrate over the last 2 years. Data from 2023-02-08 through
+ 2025-02-07. Source:
+ [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/hashrate-difficulty#2y).
</Figure>
If energy prices continue to rise and hashprice doesn't increase, Bitcoin miners will eventuallly decrease their hashrate. We've started to see this with news of some miners using their energy for AI training/inference instead. I'd argue this is a good thing for the Bitcoin network, as oversaturating hashrate means we overallocated capital to mining.
### Lightning (and Other Layer 2s)
+
As Lightning and other layer 2s have matured, we've seen increasing numbers of services adopt them to lower fees and increase transaction speed. Multiple exchanges have enabled Lightning withdrawals[^6], [BTCPayServer](https://btcpayserver.org) includes Lightning payment options, etc. As Bitcoin continues to expand its adoption, I expect the transactions appearing on-chain will look more like larger, net settlement transactions.
This seems generally positive to me. Lightning transactions are faster, cheaper, more private[^7], and are still anchored to Bitcoin's base layer. For the self-sovereign Bitcoiner, running a self-hosted Lightning node is more work and there are certainly challenges to doing so which need to be improved upon. But I don't see why we necessarily want to force people back on-chain for everything unless Lightning fails as a project.
### HODLing is Using
+
When someone expects Bitcoin's economic value to appreciate, hoarding is a rational decision. Bitcoin's 21MM supply cap is a key feature for many users preserving wealth in an asset free from inflationay pressure. In this view, hoarding is a feature, not a bug.
It's not up to me to tell others how they want to use Bitcoin. I'd like to see more Bitcoin-denominated transactions in the world, but we can't force those who don't want to spend their Bitcoin to do so.
## What should I do then?
+
Take advantage of the lower fees and make on-chain transactions. Some ideas:
+
- Transact with Bitcoin!
- Consolidate your UTXOs. [I wrote an article on considerations for minimum UTXO size](/articles/2023-08-04-minimum-utxo-value).
- Open/close Lightning channels. The initial funding and closing mechanisms require on-chain transactions.
- Create new multisig vaults.
[^1]: [https://x.com/aeonBTC/status/1885943894581583996](https://x.com/aeonBTC/status/1885943894581583996)
+
[^2]: And this should really be a concern with centralized pools as well, since it really turns into a regulatory concern argument. The jurisdiction of both the miner and the pool will impact decision making on whether hashrate will be pointed at a transaction filtering pool.
+
[^3]: Some kind of cyberpunk megacorporation that somehow benefits from destroying Bitcoin??? A bitcoin-focused IOI from <cite>Ready Player One</cite>? <Picture src={innovativeOnlineIndustries} alt="Innovative Online Industries logo." />
+
[^4]: Braiins put together [a good analysis of this](https://braiins.com/blog/how-much-would-it-cost-to-51-attack-bitcoin) in 2021.
+
[^5]: [https://docs.luxor.tech/hashrateindex/hashprice](https://docs.luxor.tech/hashrateindex/hashprice)
+
[^6]: Some that come to mind are [Strike](https://strike.me), [River](https://river.com), and [Kraken](https://www.kraken.com), among others.
+
[^7]: [https://www.voltage.cloud/blog/lightning-network-privacy-explainer#:~:text=Privacy%20from%20different-,perspectives,-The%20lightning%20network](https://www.voltage.cloud/blog/lightning-network-privacy-explainer#:~:text=Privacy%20from%20different-,perspectives,-The%20lightning%20network)
modified: 2025-02-07
description: A look at what Bitcoin dust is, historical fee rates, how fees are calculated, and a decision on a minimum UTXO value to stay above the dust threshold.
tags:
-- bitcoin
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1687510820417363968
Nostr: https://primal.net//e/note1r0ht4gkxpg8hddyxflfzw0w0rv6qxchc6s836pt9lsqeqwxahj9sgrrgpw
---
+
import Callout from '@components/ui/callout.astro';
import Figure from '@components/ui/figure.astro';
import minimumUTXOValueMempoolVBytesHistory from './minimum-utxo-value_mempool_vbytes_history.svg';
<Callout level="info">**TL;DR:** Taproot UTXO, 65k sats</Callout>
### Historical Fee Rates
+
The highest fee periods in Bitcoin history have been 2018, 2021, and 2023:
-<Figure image={minimumUTXOValueMempoolVBytesHistory} alt="Historical graph of Bitcoin mempool by vBytes" formats={['svg']}>
- Source: [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool#all).
+<Figure
+ image={minimumUTXOValueMempoolVBytesHistory}
+ alt="Historical graph of Bitcoin mempool by vBytes"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Source: [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool#all).
</Figure>
I've selected 4 blocks to deep dive, based on their proximity to mempool peaks in those three years, as well as a more "normal" current block:
+
- 504000: January 12, 2018
- 680000: April 21, 2021
- 782400: March 24, 2023
- 801171: July 31, 2023
-<Figure image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerOverall} alt="Box and whisker plot of fee rates across blocks" formats={['svg']}>
- Outliers removed.
+<Figure
+ image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerOverall}
+ alt="Box and whisker plot of fee rates across blocks"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Outliers removed.
</Figure>
| **Fee Rate (sats/vB)** | **504000** | **680000** | **782400** | **801171** |
-|:----------------------:|:----------:|:----------:|:----------:|:----------:|
-| Minimum | 11 | 19 | 5 | 5 |
-| Median | 119 | 269 | 27 | 12 |
-| Mode | 118 | 269 | 27 | 12 |
-| Maximum | 1099 | 3578 | 301 | 1280 |
+| :--------------------: | :--------: | :--------: | :--------: | :--------: |
+| Minimum | 11 | 19 | 5 | 5 |
+| Median | 119 | 269 | 27 | 12 |
+| Mode | 118 | 269 | 27 | 12 |
+| Maximum | 1099 | 3578 | 301 | 1280 |
The first visible difference based on the box and whisker plot is the noticeable decrease in fee rate variance, likely attributable to better fee estimations. Second, is the 86% decline in median fee rate with an average 194 sats/vB between blocks 504000 and 680000 vs. 27 sats/vB in block 782400.
-<Callout level="info">I'm taking a naïve view of transactions, so transactions pushed through using CPFP aren't coalesced into a single transaction with a blended, "effective" fee rate. In theory, this should reduce fee rate spread, but will be relatively centered around the median.</Callout>
+<Callout level="info">
+ I'm taking a naïve view of transactions, so transactions pushed through using
+ CPFP aren't coalesced into a single transaction with a blended, "effective"
+ fee rate. In theory, this should reduce fee rate spread, but will be
+ relatively centered around the median.
+</Callout>
I don't expect to see major differences in fee rates by script type, but since I have the data available here's what that looks like (it's as expected):
-<Figure image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerFeeRateScriptTypes} alt="Box and whiskper plot of fee rates by script type" formats={['svg']}>
- Fee Rate axis capped at 50 sats/vB to better show the differences between script types.
+<Figure
+ image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerFeeRateScriptTypes}
+ alt="Box and whiskper plot of fee rates by script type"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Fee Rate axis capped at 50 sats/vB to better show the differences between
+ script types.
</Figure>
Transactions are shifting towards the newer P2WPKH, P2WSH, and P2TR script types:
| **Transactions (%)** | **504000** | **680000** | **782400** | **801171** |
-|:--------------------:|:----------:|:----------:|:----------:|:----------:|
-| P2PKH | 97% | 51% | 22% | 32% |
-| P2SH | 3% | 41% | 28% | 26% |
-| P2WPKH | 0% | 7% | 38% | 38% |
-| P2WSH | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
-| P2TR | 0% | 0% | 12% | 3% |
+| :------------------: | :--------: | :--------: | :--------: | :--------: |
+| P2PKH | 97% | 51% | 22% | 32% |
+| P2SH | 3% | 41% | 28% | 26% |
+| P2WPKH | 0% | 7% | 38% | 38% |
+| P2WSH | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
+| P2TR | 0% | 0% | 12% | 3% |
Where the script types do differ is in the total size of the transaction and therefore, the total fees paid.
-<Figure image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerFeesScriptType} alt="Box and whisker plot of total fees by script type" formats={['svg']}>
- Fee Rate axis capped at 300000 sats/vB to better show the differences between script types.
+<Figure
+ image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerFeesScriptType}
+ alt="Box and whisker plot of total fees by script type"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Fee Rate axis capped at 300000 sats/vB to better show the differences between
+ script types.
</Figure>
P2WSH and P2TR transactions appear to be paying higher median fees than other script types.
-<Figure image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerFeesScriptTypeZoomed} alt="Box and whisker plot of total fees by script type, zoomed" formats={['svg']}>
- Fee Rate axis capped at 18000 sats/vB to better show the differences between script types.
+<Figure
+ image={minimumUTXOValueBoxWhiskerFeesScriptTypeZoomed}
+ alt="Box and whisker plot of total fees by script type, zoomed"
+ formats={['svg']}
+>
+ Fee Rate axis capped at 18000 sats/vB to better show the differences between
+ script types.
</Figure>
To better understand the cause of this, we have to know how vBytes are allocated during the construction of a transaction.
### Calculating Transaction Size
+
The total fees paid to move a given UTXO depend on the vBytes needed to construct a transaction. Jameson Lopp has a [transaction size calculator](https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-transaction-size-calculator/) you can use to see how differing script types, numbers of inputs/outputs, and other variables will impact the resulting transaction size. Bitcoin OpTech has a [transaction size calculator](https://bitcoinops.org/en/tools/calc-size/) that breaks out how each component of a transaction relates to an amount of vBytes.
The table below shows the amount of vBytes required by a transaction consisting of a single input being spent to a single output.
| **Output →<br />Input ↓** | **P2PKH** | **P2SH** | **P2WPKH** | **P2WSH** | **P2TR** |
-|:--------------------:|:---------:|:--------:|:----------:|:---------:|:--------:|
-| P2PKH | 192 | 190 | 189 | 201 | 201 |
-| P2SH (2-of-3) | 341 | 339 | 338 | 350 | 350 |
-| P2WPKH | 112.5 | 110.5 | 109.5 | 121.5 | 121.5 |
-| P2WSH (2-of-3) | 149 | 147 | 146 | 158 | 158 |
-| P2TR (Keypath) | 102 | 100 | 99 | 111 | 111 |
+| :-----------------------: | :-------: | :------: | :--------: | :-------: | :------: |
+| P2PKH | 192 | 190 | 189 | 201 | 201 |
+| P2SH (2-of-3) | 341 | 339 | 338 | 350 | 350 |
+| P2WPKH | 112.5 | 110.5 | 109.5 | 121.5 | 121.5 |
+| P2WSH (2-of-3) | 149 | 147 | 146 | 158 | 158 |
+| P2TR (Keypath) | 102 | 100 | 99 | 111 | 111 |
So in ideal dust spending conditions, you would hold a P2TR UTXO and spend it to a P2WPKH output. An input requires more vBytes than an output, so the ideal will change if you are spending few inputs to many outputs.
-<Callout level="info">Surprisingly, despite P2SH and P2PKH inputs being the most expensive (in terms of total fees), the fee data above doesn't bear that out. Without doing further digging, I assume it's due to multi-sig being more common with other script types.</Callout>
+<Callout level="info">
+ Surprisingly, despite P2SH and P2PKH inputs being the most expensive (in terms
+ of total fees), the fee data above doesn't bear that out. Without doing
+ further digging, I assume it's due to multi-sig being more common with other
+ script types.
+</Callout>
### Choosing a Minimum UTXO Value
+
Putting everything together, here are my assumptions for choosing my minimum UTXO value:
+
1. I want to be able to send the UTXO to any type of output: assume I'm spending to a P2WSH or P2TR output which are the most expensive
1. Although median fee rates have come down since the last peaks, I'll assume a pretty high fee rate: 300 sats/vB
- 1. Additional Bitcoin adoption in the future will put upward pressure on block space demand. Current adoption is estimated in the low single-digit percentage (~2.5%) [of the world's population](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/an-objective-look-at-bitcoin-adoption).
- 1. Non-Bitcoin changes could also affect block space demand (e.g., Ordinals)
+ 1. Additional Bitcoin adoption in the future will put upward pressure on block space demand. Current adoption is estimated in the low single-digit percentage (~2.5%) [of the world's population](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/an-objective-look-at-bitcoin-adoption).
+ 1. Non-Bitcoin changes could also affect block space demand (e.g., Ordinals)
1. Bitcoin changes slowly and updates that reduce vBytes needed to spend a UTXO may not come. They could require **more** vBytes.
-Given the above, I want to hold a P2TR UTXO so my projected dust threshold would be 33,301 sats. That's just the threshold at which I'm able to spend the UTXO without requiring an additional input. To make the UTXO useful, it requires excess value. I've settled on 65,000 sats as a minimum UTXO value for a round number that (at current USD exchange rates) would leave me with ~$10 in spending power.
\ No newline at end of file
+Given the above, I want to hold a P2TR UTXO so my projected dust threshold would be 33,301 sats. That's just the threshold at which I'm able to spend the UTXO without requiring an additional input. To make the UTXO useful, it requires excess value. I've settled on 65,000 sats as a minimum UTXO value for a round number that (at current USD exchange rates) would leave me with ~$10 in spending power.
modified: 2025-01-27
description: Is the US monetary system experiencing enshittification? And how do we solve it?
tags:
-- bitcoin
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1763677048814616669
---
+
import { Picture } from 'astro:assets';
import honeyBadger from './monetary-system-enshittification_honeybadger.jpg';
-<Picture src={honeyBadger} alt="Bitcoin honeybadger stomping on the US monetary system." />
+<Picture
+ src={honeyBadger}
+ alt="Bitcoin honeybadger stomping on the US monetary system."
+/>
Is the US monetary system experiencing enshittification? And how do we solve it? If we think about monetary systems as platforms which facilitate value transfer, I think some of [Cory Doctorow's](https://twitter.com/doctorow) ideas on preventing platform decay can apply.
Ultimately, enshittification is a rent-seeking problem: the platform is no longer incentivized to maximize value for the users since they're locked into the network. Rent-seeking continues to drain value from debtors to creditors and leads to heavy stratification of society.
Currently, the dollar is king. With the world locked into the US monetary system, the US governmental apparatus (policymakers, interest groups, etc.) is not incentivized to improve the system of tariffs, subsidies, and regulations for the net benefit of society.
-
+
The Jubilee, as described in Leviticus, attempted to solve societal stratification as value accreted to creditors over time. Every 50 years, debts were forgiven and property was returned to its original owner, "resetting" the scale between creditors and debtors.
There are two principles Doctorow believes can solve platform decay:
+
- End-to-End Principle: the role of a network is to reliably deliver data from willing senders to willing receivers.
- Right of Exit: users can easily go elsewhere if they are dissatisfied with it.
With the invention of Bitcoin, there is now a way to easily move off the US monetary system and satisfy the Right of Exit principle, by limiting exposure to trusted third-parties, and self-custodying personal wealth.
-While Bitcoin is just part of the solution to the US monetary system's enshittification problem, it is necessary to maintain its value for the people, and not the rent-seekers.
\ No newline at end of file
+While Bitcoin is just part of the solution to the US monetary system's enshittification problem, it is necessary to maintain its value for the people, and not the rent-seekers.
---
-title: "R1 vs. o1: AI as Commodity or Moat"
+title: 'R1 vs. o1: AI as Commodity or Moat'
date: 2025-01-27
modified: 2025-10-24
description: Is DeepSeek's R1 an existential threat to OpenAI?
tags:
-- ai
+ - ai
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1884001595282907401
---
+
import { Picture } from 'astro:assets';
import Callout from '@components/ui/callout.astro';
import Figure from '@components/ui/figure.astro';
import accuracyByBenchmark from './r1-o1-benchmarks.jpg';
import r1OniPhone from './r1-on-iphone-localghost.gif';
-<Picture src={dabbingMeme} alt="US - China AI model enjoyers Dabbing Dude meme" />
+<Picture
+ src={dabbingMeme}
+ alt="US - China AI model enjoyers Dabbing Dude meme"
+/>
DeepSeek announced the release of its R1 reasoning model[^1] a day before the US announced it would use its executive power to secure the infrastructure needs for a joint venture between OpenAI (developers of the o1 reasoning model), Microsoft, Oracle, and Softbank, titled "Stargate"[^2].
A few days later, markets have taken this as an existential threat to OpenAI's dominance and energy/compute demand. This is a shot across the bow from DeepSeek and zooming out, represents the economic tug-of-war between China and the US, but I don't think it spells disaster for the US' ambitions -- if US companies can continue pushing the performance frontier.
<Figure image={nvda} alt="NVDA price action on 2025-01-27">
- Nvidia was down ~17% by end of day on the news.
+ Nvidia was down ~17% by end of day on the news.
</Figure>
## The Facts
+
DeepSeek trained R1 for an estimated $5.6MM on A100 and H800 GPUs (not the latest-and-greatest GPUs available). End-user inference pricing is an order of magnitude cheaper than o1.
-<Figure image={inputOutputPricing} alt="Input/Output Pricing for o1-Class Inference Models ($/1M Tokens)">
- Source: [@RnaudBertrand](https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1881709223152878000/photo/1).
+<Figure
+ image={inputOutputPricing}
+ alt="Input/Output Pricing for o1-Class Inference Models ($/1M Tokens)"
+>
+ Source:
+ [@RnaudBertrand](https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1881709223152878000/photo/1).
</Figure>
Despite less capital expenditure, R1 has comparable performance to o1 due to several technical innovations. I don't pretend to deeply understand everything on this front, so instead I'll direct you [to this paper](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf), which breaks down what's happening under the hood. Ultimately, R1 is essentially a drop-in replacement for o1.
-<Figure image={accuracyByBenchmark} alt="Accuracy / Percentile (%) by Benchmark">
- Source: [DeepSeek-AI](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf).
+<Figure
+ image={accuracyByBenchmark}
+ alt="Accuracy / Percentile (%) by Benchmark"
+>
+ Source:
+ [DeepSeek-AI](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf).
</Figure>
This is incredible for the little guy: run your own model, privately, without the need for massive infrastructure.
-<Figure image={r1OniPhone} alt="R1 running locally on an iPhone" formats={['gif']}>
- A distilled version of R1 running locally on an iPhone. Source: [@localghost](https://x.com/localghost/status/1882109711732154387).
+<Figure
+ image={r1OniPhone}
+ alt="R1 running locally on an iPhone"
+ formats={['gif']}
+>
+ A distilled version of R1 running locally on an iPhone. Source:
+ [@localghost](https://x.com/localghost/status/1882109711732154387).
</Figure>
## Is OpenAI Cooked?
+
First, the threshold for publicly available, open-source reasoning models will never be lower than this. HuggingFace is attempting to reproduce R1 fully in the open[^3] which would make it an end-to-end public frontier model. I think this is a win for society.
Second, everyone should be significantly shortening their anticipated AI development timelines. The initial market reaction was a first order reaction (80% less compute! 80% less chip demand!) but I don't see why energy infrastructure and chip manufacturing demand would be negatively impacted. I'd more likely guess this is a [Jevon's paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox) situation, where the excess capacity is immediately saturated to advance model performance at a now more rapid pace.
It's clear with the amount of investment the US and companies are ploughing into OpenAI, their vision for the future is one where OpenAI has the highest horsepower model and defends its moat simply by having the smartest, fastest, best model. Value capture in this version of the world accrues to the model developers.
-China's approach, exemplified by R1, envisions a future with commodity AI models used as building blocks within other applications. Incentivizing open development of models with comparable performance to private frontier models ensures the US *can't* develop an AI moat. China codified this objective in 2017 with the release of their, ["New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan" (translated)](https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/). Some sections that stood out to me:
+China's approach, exemplified by R1, envisions a future with commodity AI models used as building blocks within other applications. Incentivizing open development of models with comparable performance to private frontier models ensures the US _can't_ develop an AI moat. China codified this objective in 2017 with the release of their, ["New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan" (translated)](https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/). Some sections that stood out to me:
-> *Open-Source and Open.* Advocate the concept of open-source sharing, and promote the concept of industry, academia, research, and production units each innovating and in principal pursuing joint innovation and sharing. Follow the coordinated development law for economic and national defense construction; promote two-way conversion and application for military and civilian scientific and technological achievements and co-construction and sharing of military and civilian innovation resources; form an all-element, multi-domain, highly efficient new pattern of civil-military integration.[^4]
+> _Open-Source and Open._ Advocate the concept of open-source sharing, and promote the concept of industry, academia, research, and production units each innovating and in principal pursuing joint innovation and sharing. Follow the coordinated development law for economic and national defense construction; promote two-way conversion and application for military and civilian scientific and technological achievements and co-construction and sharing of military and civilian innovation resources; form an all-element, multi-domain, highly efficient new pattern of civil-military integration.[^4]
> **(2) Optimize arrangements to build AI innovation bases**
> Guide existing AI-related national focus laboratories, corporate national focus laboratories, national engineering laboratories, and other such bases, and conduct research focused on an advanced direction of a new generation of AI.[^5]
I don't think it's a stretch to compare OpenAI's business model with that of IBM in the 80s and 90s[^6]. History shows tech advancements trend towards commoditization. We'll see if the US' investments can buck the trend.
[^1]: [🚀 DeepSeek-R1 is here!](https://x.com/deepseek_ai/status/1881318130334814301)
+
[^2]: [Announcing the Stargate Project](https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/)
+
[^3]: [Open R1](https://github.com/huggingface/open-r1)
+
[^4]: [Full Translation: China's 'New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan' (2017)](https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/#:~:text=Open-Source%20and,a%20global%20scale.)
-[^5]: [Full Translation: China's 'New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan' (2017)](https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/#:~:text=(2)%20optimize%20arrangements%20to%20build%20ai%20innovation%20bases)
-[^6]: [History of IBM - 1975–1992: Information revolution, rise of software and PC industries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_IBM#1975%E2%80%931992:_Information_revolution,_rise_of_software_and_PC_industries)
\ No newline at end of file
+
+[^5]: [Full Translation: China's 'New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan' (2017)](<https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/full-translation-chinas-new-generation-artificial-intelligence-development-plan-2017/#:~:text=(2)%20optimize%20arrangements%20to%20build%20ai%20innovation%20bases>)
+
+[^6]: [History of IBM - 1975–1992: Information revolution, rise of software and PC industries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_IBM#1975%E2%80%931992:_Information_revolution,_rise_of_software_and_PC_industries)
modified: 2024-12-23
description: If a drive is failing in an array, Btrfs could block attempts at removing the drive due to corrupted files. A quick write-up of how to get it removed.
tags:
-- linux
+ - linux
---
+
import Callout from '@components/ui/callout.astro';
I recently ran into a situation where I knew one of the hard drives in my Btrfs array was failing. Simply following the [Btrfs wiki removing devices instructions](https://archive.kernel.org/oldwiki/btrfs.wiki.kernel.org/index.php/Using_Btrfs_with_Multiple_Devices.html#Removing_devices) was unsuccessful as the `btrfs delete device` command would throw an error, cancelling the device deletion process.
At this point, I was okay with losing any corrupted/unrecoverable files. You should already be past the point of restoring from backup, attempting other recovery methods, etc. I just wanted to get the dying drive removed from the array since I knew I didn't have critical data on the array.
-<Callout level="warn">Make sure you've exhausted all other resources before continuing. Check the [ArchWiki](https://wiki.archlinux.org/title/Btrfs), [Btrfs mailing list](https://archive.kernel.org/oldwiki/btrfs.wiki.kernel.org/index.php/Btrfs_mailing_list.html), etc. This will lead to data loss!</Callout>
+<Callout level="warn">
+ Make sure you've exhausted all other resources before continuing. Check the
+ [ArchWiki](https://wiki.archlinux.org/title/Btrfs), [Btrfs mailing
+ list](https://archive.kernel.org/oldwiki/btrfs.wiki.kernel.org/index.php/Btrfs_mailing_list.html),
+ etc. This will lead to data loss!
+</Callout>
### Scrub the Array
+
Start a scrub to identify files blocking the device from getting deleted:
```console
```
### Remove Uncorrectable Errors
+
Btrfs was able to correct many of the errors it came across, but in this instance I was left with 18 uncorrectable errors. As the scrub identifies these, it will report them into the kernel ring buffer (`dmesg`). I found it nearly impossible to search through that, since the messages would either fall out of the log by the time I came back to the terminal to search. Instead, `journalctl` keeps a full enough history to search through:
```console
The output shows logical `32574079762432` refers to `/mnt/btrfs/P6300090.mov`. Remove the file, doing the same for all other logicals reported as uncorrectable errors. Several of the errors I received seemed to go away/not refer to a file. I just attempted removing any files that were identified, ignoring logicals that didn't resolve to anything.
### Delete the Device
+
Now remount the Btrfs array, marking it as degraded. Then, delete the device you want to remove (in my case `/dev/sdd`):
```console
devid 7 size 12.73TiB used 1.07TiB path /dev/sdg
```
-Let that complete, and the device should now be removed from the Btrfs array. You're now missing several files that were unrecoverable, so hopefully those were backed up somewhere else or they weren't critical.
\ No newline at end of file
+Let that complete, and the device should now be removed from the Btrfs array. You're now missing several files that were unrecoverable, so hopefully those were backed up somewhere else or they weren't critical.
title: we're ripping off-the-cuff about dollar rallying, rates, stargate, and deepseek. listen in 👇
date: 2025-01-23
modified: 2025-06-19
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #4"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #4'
tags:
-- ai
-- macro
+ - ai
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1882563050374631488
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cotsuka_build-weekly-roundup-turn-your-videos-into-activity-7288329246236688384-obii
> BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1YqGovvolLkKv
>
> — Matt Dines (@LeveredUSTs) [January 23, 2025](https://twitter.com/LeveredUSTs/status/1882561482535436387)
-
title: Yield curve updates, looking forward to Yen meeting, more DeepSeek analysis
date: 2025-01-30
modified: 2025-06-19
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #5"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #5'
tags:
-- ai
-- macro
+ - ai
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1885111055158042704
---
title: Listen in as we break down Treasury yields, bond liquidity, potential regulatory changes, Bitcoin's mempools, and alternative investments 👇
date: 2025-02-06
modified: 2025-10-24
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #6"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #6'
tags:
-- bitcoin
-- macro
+ - bitcoin
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1887613309870088495
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cotsuka_bitcoin-activity-7293379146213117953-Lehb
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gORG_wURG78
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-6-e32jcck
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
-<YouTube title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #6" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gORG_wURG78" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #6"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gORG_wURG78"
+/>
title: 🚨 the penny peg has broken, new 6-week t-bills, ukraine peace talks, and more
date: 2025-02-13
modified: 2025-10-24
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #7"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #7'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1890159220974362824
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_the-penny-peg-has-broken-build-weekly-ugcPost-7295919885853896704-FNub
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFL1LCy-Rsk
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/THE-PENNY-PEG-HAS-BROKEN---BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP-2025-WEEK-7-e32jcfi
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
-<YouTube title="🚨 THE PENNY PEG HAS BROKEN - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP 2025 WEEK #7" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFL1LCy-Rsk" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="🚨 THE PENNY PEG HAS BROKEN - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP 2025 WEEK #7"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFL1LCy-Rsk"
+/>
title: Talking DOGE cuts 🐶
date: 2025-02-20
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #8"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #8'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/CameronOtsuka/status/1892711833943081227
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cotsuka_bitcoin-activity-7298481825612472320-SYZt
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3IfnpazO4A
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-8-e32jcj3
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
Talking DOGE cuts 🐶
-<YouTube title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #8" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3IfnpazO4A" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #8"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3IfnpazO4A"
+/>
title: Fork in the road for Treasury yields
date: 2025-03-13
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #11"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #11'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1900265390279917813
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_build-weekly-roundup-2025-week-11-fork-ugcPost-7306025335437832192-lyC2
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbpNbMR9HdM
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-11-e32jcn6
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Fork in the road for Treasury yields
- Bitcoin bonds
- Tariff whiplash
-<YouTube title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #11" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbpNbMR9HdM" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #11"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbpNbMR9HdM"
+/>
title: Post-FOMC Landscape and the EU Savings & Investments Union
date: 2025-03-20
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #12"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #12'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1902821735764004882
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_build-weekly-roundup-2025-week-12-post-fomc-ugcPost-7308584378203353088-RIO9
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX0VjqLCZVQ
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-12-e32jcqi
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Post-FOMC landscape
- EU Savings & Investments Union
-<YouTube title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #12" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX0VjqLCZVQ" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #12"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX0VjqLCZVQ"
+/>
title: Liberation Day in America
date: 2025-04-03
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #14"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #14'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1907904612491026601
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7313641949851185152/comments/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mny_aaCciw
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-14-e32jd2b
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Liberation Day? Or Recession Day?
- Will tariffs improve GDP outlook?
- CoreWeave IPO
-<YouTube title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #14" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mny_aaCciw" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #14"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mny_aaCciw"
+/>
title: Tariffs pack a wallop
date: 2025-04-10
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #15"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #15'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1910437627070996981
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_build-weekly-roundup-2025-week-15-tariffs-ugcPost-7316194096199450624-OW_f
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88uye8yGnDA
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-15-e32jd6m
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Tariffs pack a wallop
-<YouTube title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #15" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88uye8yGnDA" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #15"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88uye8yGnDA"
+/>
title: Retail rushes for gold
date: 2025-04-25
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #17"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #17'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1915502782368358771
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_build-weekly-roundup-2025-week-17-credit-ugcPost-7321263977127137280-XrkZ
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Rnz-um_t_8
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-17-e32jdhr
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- credit markets settle in
- bitcoin breaks out?
- retail rushes for gold
-<YouTube title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #17" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Rnz-um_t_8" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #17"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Rnz-um_t_8"
+/>
title: The Art of the (Ukraine) Deal
date: 2025-05-01
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #18"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #18'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1918047770180563330
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_the-art-of-the-ukraine-deal-build-weekly-ugcPost-7323754622823620608-o_3h
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qujrx5baRIY
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/THE-ART-OF-THE-UKRAINE-DEAL---BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-18-e32jdle
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- us - ukraine minerals deal
- bitcoin custody security in meatspace
-<YouTube title="THE ART OF THE (UKRAINE) DEAL - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #18" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qujrx5baRIY" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="THE ART OF THE (UKRAINE) DEAL - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #18"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qujrx5baRIY"
+/>
title: Hong Kong Dollar Squeeze
date: 2025-05-08
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #19"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #19'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1920625012542722543
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7326392707856109568/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lh8o3z_0ws
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/HONG-KONG-DOLLAR-SQUEEZE---BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-19-e32jb7m
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- hong kong dollar squeeze
- us dollar catches a bid
- why not silver?
-<YouTube title="HONG KONG DOLLAR SQUEEZE - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #19" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lh8o3z_0ws" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="HONG KONG DOLLAR SQUEEZE - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #19"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lh8o3z_0ws"
+/>
title: Not Your Father's Recession
date: 2025-05-15
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #20"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #20'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1920625012542722543
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7326392707856109568/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuDEhyhx8cs
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/NOT-YOUR-FATHERS-RECESSION---BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-20-e32un7n
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Geneva-brokered truce
🛰️ 𝕏 Spaces: [https://x.com/TheBitcoinConf/status/1922769164092994047](https://x.com/TheBitcoinConf/status/1922769164092994047)
-<YouTube title="NOT YOUR FATHER'S RECESSION - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #20" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuDEhyhx8cs" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="NOT YOUR FATHER'S RECESSION - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #20"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuDEhyhx8cs"
+/>
title: A Pivotal Week
date: 2025-05-22
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #21"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #21'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1925693938549100761
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7331459338328248322/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PqNrcdX7iY
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/A-PIVOTAL-WEEK---BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-21-e3380tv
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Long bond breaks its channel to the downside
- GENIUS Act
- Ukraine impasse
-<YouTube title="A PIVOTAL WEEK - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #21" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PqNrcdX7iY" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="A PIVOTAL WEEK - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #21"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PqNrcdX7iY"
+/>
title: JPM Bends the Knee to Bitcoin
date: 2025-06-06
modified: 2025-06-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #23"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #23'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1925693938549100761
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_jpm-bends-the-knee-to-bitcoin-build-weekly-activity-7336863815914921984-BiMo
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0fzFUhvPSs
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/JPM-BENDS-THE-KNEE-TO-BITCOIN---BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-23-e33td1r
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- May Nonfarm Payrolls
- Circle IPO
- J.P. Morgan x Bitcoin
-<YouTube title="JPM BENDS THE KNEE TO BITCOIN - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #23" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0fzFUhvPSs" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="JPM BENDS THE KNEE TO BITCOIN - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #23"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0fzFUhvPSs"
+/>
title: Last Chance to Hit the Exit?
date: 2025-06-12
modified: 2025-06-18
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #24"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #24'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1933280062511681715
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7339045809440571392
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzkHVmYWFNQ
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/LAST-CHANCE-TO-HIT-THE-EXIT----BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-24-e345pap
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- One Big Beautiful Bill Act
- US-China Trade Talks in China
- Unrest in the US
-<YouTube title="LAST CHANCE TO HIT THE EXIT? - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #24" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzkHVmYWFNQ" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="LAST CHANCE TO HIT THE EXIT? - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #24"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzkHVmYWFNQ"
+/>
title: Battle of Fordow
date: 2025-06-18
modified: 2025-06-18
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #25"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #25'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1935470458507510129
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7341236062796595200/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJgvFivYCK8
Spotify: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/buildmarkets/episodes/BATTLE-OF-FORDOW---BUILD-WEEKLY-ROUNDUP---2025-WEEK-25-e34eigq
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Iran-Israel conflict
- GENIUS Act
- Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) Easing
-<YouTube title="BATTLE OF FORDOW - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #25" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJgvFivYCK8" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BATTLE OF FORDOW - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #25"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJgvFivYCK8"
+/>
title: Rebalance of Power
date: 2025-06-26
modified: 2025-07-01
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #26"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #26'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1938355746883964943
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_rebalance-of-power-build-weekly-roundup-activity-7344121427178004481-50wF
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALOy0ya-x5U
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6SZ9eB4Onam98MMRKqhiNq
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Iran oil & gas
- US rates relief?
- Fannie Mae (FNMA) & Freddie Mac (FHMLC)
-<YouTube title="REBALANCE OF POWER - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #26" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALOy0ya-x5U" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="REBALANCE OF POWER - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #26"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALOy0ya-x5U"
+/>
title: Monetary Policy Disarray
date: 2025-07-17
modified: 2025-07-17
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #29"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #29'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1945964984355479552
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7351730730965610496/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Kigfxw5fE
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4mYhpRJRErxwM5o44bBA4F
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
Dollar weakness reverses, new monetary policy disorder emerges, Bitcoin bullish.
-<YouTube title="MONETARY POLICY DISARRAY - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #29" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Kigfxw5fE" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="MONETARY POLICY DISARRAY - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #29"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Kigfxw5fE"
+/>
title: Rate Shortcut Contractors, Inc.
date: 2025-07-25
modified: 2025-07-25
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #30"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #30'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1948866039703634076
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7354631718491901953/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rukFHOlkJWw
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0QqKMYCWdUjVUNG9VwmZ3o
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
"The script flipped with COVID... we crossed over from the old world into the new." — Matt Dines. High copper prices no longer signal robust growth but rather resource constraints in the electrification economy.
-<YouTube title="RATE SHORTCUT CONTRACTORS, INC. - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #30" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rukFHOlkJWw" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="RATE SHORTCUT CONTRACTORS, INC. - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #30"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rukFHOlkJWw"
+/>
title: PPI Blowout
date: 2025-08-15
modified: 2025-08-17
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #33"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #33'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1956130962481512626
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/build-asset-management_ppi-blowout-build-weekly-roundup-2025-activity-7361896666574049280-CFpD
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKZISj2s5bo
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5T3vSL9aXWYcN54Ovu77BR
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Semiconductor trade realignment
- Oil glut signals economic softness
- PPI surge raises inflation concerns
-<YouTube title="PPI BLOWOUT - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #33" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKZISj2s5bo" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="PPI BLOWOUT - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #33"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKZISj2s5bo"
+/>
title: Money, Credit and Asset Prices
date: 2025-09-08
modified: 2025-09-09
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #36"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #36'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1965474835364209138
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7371240611754135552/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZCEwBMb8aQ
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5qKcRraWBFllV8hJTBZfTi
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
Slowing job growth and declining bank deposits signal late-cycle dynamics, while banks accelerate Treasury purchases and global power realignments reshape energy markets.
-<YouTube title="MONEY, CREDIT AND ASSET PRICES - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #36" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZCEwBMb8aQ" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="MONEY, CREDIT AND ASSET PRICES - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #36"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZCEwBMb8aQ"
+/>
title: Climbing the Escalatory Ladder
date: 2025-09-11
modified: 2025-09-12
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #37"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #37'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1966283940584632785
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7372049619335172096/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO9W-tZ-tV0
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7eLdefWtsrNubxXbrlR647
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- the violence cycle continues
- what does Matt Dines see in Treasury auction participation?
- is a durable trend visible in S&P 500 constituents?
-<YouTube title="CLIMBING THE ESCALATORY LADDER - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #37" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO9W-tZ-tV0" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="CLIMBING THE ESCALATORY LADDER - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #37"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO9W-tZ-tV0"
+/>
title: Dot Slop
date: 2025-09-18
modified: 2025-09-23
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #38"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #38'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1968796816331157674
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7374562496520757248/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=186p_sqB510
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3IBMEGcMDKXTtIVAvF011k
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
Fed politics intensify as Trump pushes for rate cuts while Bitcoin treasury companies experience massive volatility.
-<YouTube title="DOT SLOP - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #38" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=186p_sqB510" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="DOT SLOP - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #38"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=186p_sqB510"
+/>
title: Government Shutdown
date: 2025-09-26
modified: 2025-10-02
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #39"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #39'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1971669631942472163
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7377406941003771904
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYKqccdzu50
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ZN8520s9thMwQpSZLY9Qc
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
The Build team explains the political fight taking place over budget items and spending, leading to a potential government shutdown on September 30th.
-<YouTube title="GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #39" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYKqccdzu50" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #39"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYKqccdzu50"
+/>
title: Window of Heightened Risk
date: 2025-10-02
modified: 2025-10-02
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #40"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #40'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1973850992400912610
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7379616781822382080/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxe19ebJIKA
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4flKBqq6n3iCcHbmYfDwwb
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
Heightened geopolitical and market risk following U.S. government shutdown, with Treasury yields as the key battleground.
-<YouTube title="WINDOW OF HEIGHTENED RISK - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #40" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxe19ebJIKA" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="WINDOW OF HEIGHTENED RISK - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #40"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxe19ebJIKA"
+/>
title: Equity Financing Bubble?
date: 2025-10-09
modified: 2025-10-09
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #41"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #41'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1976404659385573638
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7382170357492862976/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DtXEELvXd8
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0G1mrAxnuy5sOcyKIskt5C
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
Equity financing schemes, sovereign bailouts, and credit collapses signal major market shifts.
-<YouTube title="EQUITY FINANCING BUBBLE? - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #41" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DtXEELvXd8" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="EQUITY FINANCING BUBBLE? - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #41"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DtXEELvXd8"
+/>
title: Debasement Awakening
date: 2025-10-16
modified: 2025-10-16
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #42"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #42'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1978932048443380090
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7384697743765622784/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb8gDcMZz28
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Pi9Aq7pYyHa5YdI2DRcDS
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- the debasement trade already occurred?
- China's critical food supply chains threatened
- possibility of heightened volatility ahead of upcoming events
-<YouTube title="DEBASEMENT AWAKENING - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #42" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb8gDcMZz28" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="DEBASEMENT AWAKENING - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #42"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb8gDcMZz28"
+/>
title: Control the World
date: 2025-10-24
modified: 2025-10-24
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #43"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #43'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1981809246661750924
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7387574956332634112/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xppZSCr5Gp4
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2hIbGI6s02edlQBEH84JxD
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- 🇺🇸 trade stance with 🇨🇳 and Section 301
- future energy market positioning via offshore drilling expansion
- Fed payment accounts for non-banks
-<YouTube title="CONTROL THE WORLD - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #43" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xppZSCr5Gp4" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="CONTROL THE WORLD - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #43"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xppZSCr5Gp4"
+/>
title: Caribbean Chaos
date: 2025-10-30
modified: 2025-10-30
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #44"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #44'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1984000369102667959
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7389766067763724290/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V334xqL7Nnk
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5BPZQLZ7pbyTVyaGhcSHjz
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Fed hawkish cut and end of quantitative tightening
- Trump-Xi meeting
- Caribbean naval operations and US sphere of influence
-<YouTube title="CARIBBEAN CHAOS - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #44" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V334xqL7Nnk" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="CARIBBEAN CHAOS - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #44"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V334xqL7Nnk"
+/>
title: NYC Says Cuo"no"
date: 2025-11-06
modified: 2025-11-06
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #45"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #45'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1986563122778546397
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7392328818767794176
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPOlPDDwYoA
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/65m3vcNttkqJqLJqki4128
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- NYC election results
- OpenAI wants a government backstop?
- BOJ "policy space"
-<YouTube title="NYC SAYS CUO'NO' - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #45" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPOlPDDwYoA" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="NYC SAYS CUO'NO' - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #45"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPOlPDDwYoA"
+/>
title: Likely Suffer a Complete Loss
date: 2025-11-13
modified: 2025-11-13
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #46"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #46'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1989153397036200399
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7394919256544468992
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkyownOHgWg
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0oIBXi46AOj4prgXmp949B
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- high-profile investors step away
- shutdown bill votes highlight deeper political and economic dynamics
- housing affordability crisis
-<YouTube title="LIKELY SUFFER A COMPLETE LOSS - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #46" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkyownOHgWg" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="LIKELY SUFFER A COMPLETE LOSS - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #46"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkyownOHgWg"
+/>
title: Reigning In the Offshore Dollar
date: 2025-11-21
modified: 2025-11-21
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #47"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #47'
tags:
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1992020480296124832?s=20
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7397786211169447936/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKrZvtcPuJo
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7qh94KZYz5z62noPWgZxfg
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
Russian oil divestiture reshapes global energy markets while offshore dollar dynamics signal major monetary shifts.
-<YouTube title="REIGNING IN THE OFFSHORE DOLLAR - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #47" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKrZvtcPuJo" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="REIGNING IN THE OFFSHORE DOLLAR - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #47"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKrZvtcPuJo"
+/>
title: eSLR Tilts the Scale
date: 2025-11-28
modified: 2025-12-01
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #48"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #48'
tags:
-- ai
-- macro
-- bitcoin
+ - ai
+ - macro
+ - bitcoin
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1995548798752620849
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7401314593387503616/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqlTn1yfHr8
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/78TBmVi2bpwDH40aMJPYHi
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
eSLR reduction tilts the playing field toward domestic Treasury funding as the US builds walls between onshore and offshore dollars.
-<YouTube title="ESLR TILTS THE SCALE - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #48" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqlTn1yfHr8" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="ESLR TILTS THE SCALE - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #48"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqlTn1yfHr8"
+/>
title: ECB Urges Gold Rethink
date: 2025-12-04
modified: 2025-12-04
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #49"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #49'
tags:
-- ai
-- macro
+ - ai
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1996718566981378116
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7402484057017946113/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_zV9w8LCs0
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Y4YDWfpFDvql7TwIreWeJ
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Supply squeezes across multiple inputs, with RAM headlining
- Italian gold sovereignty
- US job market softening
-<YouTube title="ECB URGES GOLD RETHINK - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #49" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_zV9w8LCs0" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="ECB URGES GOLD RETHINK - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #49"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_zV9w8LCs0"
+/>
title: Trade Route Control
date: 2025-12-12
modified: 2025-12-12
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #50"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #50'
tags:
-- macro
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/1999627578718720126
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7405393279803985921/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5lGB2Qpxxw
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6M3zKNbnuAnWear9z5Pshl
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Fed begins Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)
- Lukoil saga and the struggle over trade routes continues
- Rising costs hit $JPM
-<YouTube title="TRADE ROUTE CONTROL - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #50" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5lGB2Qpxxw" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="TRADE ROUTE CONTROL - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #50"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5lGB2Qpxxw"
+/>
title: Global Sovereign Debt Survey
date: 2025-12-18
modified: 2025-12-18
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #51"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #51'
tags:
-- bitcoin
-- macro
+ - bitcoin
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/2001806666417999986
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7407572347425251328/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxLIGMJFVhc
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1qaQeddK5EHkOeGUmM11dv
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- global funding conditions favor US dollar markets
- BoJ represents the antipode to US monetary policy and is the next central bank to watch
- fusion power in our time? $DJT + TAE merger
-<YouTube title="GLOBAL SOVEREIGN DEBT SURVEY - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #51" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxLIGMJFVhc" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="GLOBAL SOVEREIGN DEBT SURVEY - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #51"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxLIGMJFVhc"
+/>
title: Bitcoin and the Innovator's Dilemma
date: 2025-12-24
modified: 2025-12-24
-description: "Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #52"
+description: 'Build Weekly Roundup - 2025 Week #52'
tags:
-- bitcoin
-- macro
+ - bitcoin
+ - macro
posse:
𝕏: https://x.com/BuildMarkets/status/2003962056337510503
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7409727755287896064/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILZyY-HhtOg
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5i6x6Q60Q7mtXHhEWTUcrQ
---
+
import YouTube from '@components/youtube.astro';
- Metals break out and Bitcoiner mental model updates
- The Innovator's Dilemma as applied to monetary systems
- EU vs. US digital sovereignty
-<YouTube title="BITCOIN AND THE INNOVATOR'S DILEMMA - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #52" videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILZyY-HhtOg" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<YouTube
+ title="BITCOIN AND THE INNOVATOR'S DILEMMA - BUILD WEEKLY ROUNDUP - 2025 WEEK #52"
+ videoURL="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILZyY-HhtOg"
+/>
- soundtrack is just as good as i remember with brian eno and godspeed you! black emperor
- forgot how much of this movie is actually silent with minimal talking
- middle drags just a tad
-- editing with quick cuts and slightly shaky handheld camera style adds to the confusion and tension they're trying to build
\ No newline at end of file
+- editing with quick cuts and slightly shaky handheld camera style adds to the confusion and tension they're trying to build
posse:
Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/cotsuka/film/a-complete-unknown/
---
+
import Rating from '@components/ui/rating.astro';
- if i was rating timothée chalamet, edward norton, and monica barbaro for their performances, this would be <Rating rating={5} />
- bob dylan is self-absorbed, johnny cash likes him for it?
- maybe stop introducing new musicians every 2 scenes
-- honestly not sure what more there is to this movie besides being a vehicle to let timmy tim perform dylan songs
\ No newline at end of file
+- honestly not sure what more there is to this movie besides being a vehicle to let timmy tim perform dylan songs
- jesse plemons was excellent
- stavros jump scare
- ending set and character design was fun and more what i expect from a lanthimos film
-- maybe i should subtract a star for the letterboxd captcha integration
\ No newline at end of file
+- maybe i should subtract a star for the letterboxd captcha integration
- zoom out from her window, where he's typing on a laptop
- last two scenes are only ones where we aren't chained to his perspective
- he's been insular and passive the entire time. complete change
-- steven yeun does a great job here
\ No newline at end of file
+- steven yeun does a great job here
- they found a way to make poker relatively exciting to watch. could do without mathis constantly telling me how big the pot is.
- vesper lynd is the best bond girl
- probably a little too long for what it is. i keep thinking we wrapped up the story, then we get bond absconding across the world, then vesper reveal, then spectre?
-- as bond movies go, this is probably the best one
\ No newline at end of file
+- as bond movies go, this is probably the best one
- thought this would be rocknrolla v2 at first
- so many, "why though?" moments throughout this film
- theater was full of girls there to see austin butler
-- the baseball "quirk" wasn't very interesting
\ No newline at end of file
+- the baseball "quirk" wasn't very interesting
- ads everywhere
- this is really about the guys discovering their relationship
- zendaya just wants to watch good tennis and will do anything to get it
-- cinematography/editing towards the end evoked "mediocre action movie"
\ No newline at end of file
+- cinematography/editing towards the end evoked "mediocre action movie"
- voting intrigue was fun
- tedesco vape hit in tremblay's face
- not the twist i was expecting
-- cinematography and set design looked great
\ No newline at end of file
+- cinematography and set design looked great
- shotgunning a hole into helen
- fabio 😂
- "dead" celebs just randomly showing up in the background: elvis, jim morrison, andy warhol, etc.
-- this isn't going to ever be at the top of your "best movies" list, but it's a fun watch for a fall night in
\ No newline at end of file
+- this isn't going to ever be at the top of your "best movies" list, but it's a fun watch for a fall night in
---
category: movie
-title: "Den of Thieves: Pantera"
+title: 'Den of Thieves: Pantera'
date: 2025-10-18
modified: 2025-10-19
rating: 1
- nick breaking bad then coming back could have been interesting if they actually set anything up to keep the stakes high. instead he monologues midway through the movie. what happened to, "show, don't tell?"
- shoving the bulkiest guys into a taycan with rifles just looks ridiculous on-screen
- why would the mafia save these guys? seems like they shoved this into the script to set up a sequel
-- we're totally going to get a fast and furious-style franchise aren't we? den of thieves: spaziale, where nick convinces the federal reserve bank of la that he needs to defend a secret stash of gold bullion on the far side of the moon
\ No newline at end of file
+- we're totally going to get a fast and furious-style franchise aren't we? den of thieves: spaziale, where nick convinces the federal reserve bank of la that he needs to defend a secret stash of gold bullion on the far side of the moon
---
category: movie
-title: "F1: The Movie"
+title: 'F1: The Movie'
date: 2025-10-16
modified: 2025-10-17
rating: 2
- red bull repairing their car on track
- abu dhabi restart between hamilton and verstappen
- they did a good job of explaining some of the finer points of f1 and its rules for an uninformed audience
-- in-car cinematography was beautiful
\ No newline at end of file
+- in-car cinematography was beautiful
posse:
Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/cotsuka/film/fallen-angels/
---
+
import { Picture } from 'astro:assets';
import Spoiler from '@components/ui/spoiler.astro';
import HeZhiwu from './fallen-angels-0.png';
- surprisingly funny (e.g., ice cream truck with family)
<Spoiler>
- - did the hitman know his partner put a hit out on him? seems like he knows a lot about her (and she knows a lot about him). so in a way, he knew the only way for her to move on was killing him, and she knew he wanted to die. their final hit as partners.
+ - did the hitman know his partner put a hit out on him? seems like he knows a
+ lot about her (and she knows a lot about him). so in a way, he knew the only
+ way for her to move on was killing him, and she knew he wanted to die. their
+ final hit as partners.
</Spoiler>
-<Picture src={WongChiMing} alt="Wong Chi-Ming and Agent in restaurant" />
\ No newline at end of file
+<Picture src={WongChiMing} alt="Wong Chi-Ming and Agent in restaurant" />
- i didn't realize the lust themes i missed as a child
- frollo needs to chill
- esmeralda - phoebus love story was unnecessary
-- hellfire might be one of the best disney animation songs
\ No newline at end of file
+- hellfire might be one of the best disney animation songs
---
- thought this would just be another boring mindswap concept but the final act musical chairs was entertaining
-- only nikki is thinking
\ No newline at end of file
+- only nikki is thinking
- malcolm was right straight out the gates
- ultimately the story of grant deciding he does want kids
- timmy should have died. my guy took 10k volts like a champ
-- would a dino island be a bad idea? yes. will man try? yes. will i visit? yes. will i be eaten by a dinosaur while using the restroom? yes.
\ No newline at end of file
+- would a dino island be a bad idea? yes. will man try? yes. will i visit? yes. will i be eaten by a dinosaur while using the restroom? yes.
- i can't help but feel this is celine song monologuing her conflicting internal views on relationships/dating rather than watching a story unfold
- sophie situation felt rushed to a conclusion. it also doesn't seem to alter lucy's view on her job or how she handles relationships. it's a minor (for lucy) speed bump that gets pushed aside with the final phone call.
- sophie really needs to make some friends.
-- pedro's line delivery and squatting during "the scene" was great
\ No newline at end of file
+- pedro's line delivery and squatting during "the scene" was great
- really like the treatment of dreams, both literally and figuratively
- even if i didn't consciously put all the pieces together, i subconsciously knew exactly what this movie was about — in that, lynch and his editor did an excellent job
- it probably didn't need the entire "crying" cover, but i'm certainly glad we got it
-- there are several threads that seem to get opened but are never returned to. after learning it was originally meant to be a tv series, maybe they should have gone back and re-filmed or rearranged some of this?
\ No newline at end of file
+- there are several threads that seem to get opened but are never returned to. after learning it was originally meant to be a tv series, maybe they should have gone back and re-filmed or rearranged some of this?
- thomas really loves his wife
- loved the cinematography and lead up to meeting orlok in the castle
- willem dafoe was having a little too much fun with his character
-- friedrich was trying to find a nice way to let them all know they've overstayed their welcome. he just wanted them out of the house
\ No newline at end of file
+- friedrich was trying to find a nice way to let them all know they've overstayed their welcome. he just wanted them out of the house
posse:
Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/cotsuka/film/one-battle-after-another/
---
+
import Spoiler from '@components/ui/spoiler.astro';
- overall pacing was fun, kept my attention the whole way
- turns out sensei is the true revolutionary: doing what he does without ego, taking care of his business
<Spoiler>
- - lockjaw did not need to come back at the end
- - is bob no longer being pursued for his prior revolutionary activities? did he just give up at the end of the movie?
-</Spoiler>
\ No newline at end of file
+ - lockjaw did not need to come back at the end - is bob no longer being
+ pursued for his prior revolutionary activities? did he just give up at the end
+ of the movie?
+</Spoiler>
- noticing the little things in life
- very shinto vibes:
- - *komorebi*
+ - _komorebi_
- god is in everything
- the aya kōda reference; inspiration?
- i have never seen this floor cleaning technique in my life
- surrealism and asburdism galore
- suprisingly strong directorial debut
-- tilda swinton was excellent as crazy, headstrong elizabeth
+- tilda swinton was excellent as crazy, headstrong elizabeth
- i stand with bank of america scene
-- personifying craigslist
\ No newline at end of file
+- personifying craigslist
- i had no clue this was a vampire movie going in
- juke joint scene blending past/present/future and musical styles was very cool
- culture vampire commentary very on the nose
-- wild mountain thyme and irish jigs go hard
\ No newline at end of file
+- wild mountain thyme and irish jigs go hard
---
category: movie
-title: "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith"
+title: 'Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith'
date: 2025-09-05
modified: 2025-09-07
rating: 3
---
- could see the plot points coming from a mile away
-- did the guy *need* to buy the one sim that looks like megan fox?
-- acting was generally bad; megan fox is good at playing a creepy bot
\ No newline at end of file
+- did the guy _need_ to buy the one sim that looks like megan fox?
+- acting was generally bad; megan fox is good at playing a creepy bot
posse:
Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/cotsuka/film/superman-2025/
---
+
import Spoiler from '@components/ui/spoiler.astro';
- really a movie about chosen family: partners, children, pets
- gunn overstuffed this movie with different little bits and i wish he had edited them down a bit more
this movie has so many memeable instances:
+
<Spoiler>
- - [engineer flip?](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vXln5XyK1gI)
- - [drunk supergirl and krypto](https://youtu.be/LbjB7PEuji8?t=26)
- - [kaiju was so cute hopping out of the van](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSlFLNktqvI)
- - [social media outrage monkeys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5t5wlwISB8k)
-</Spoiler>
\ No newline at end of file
+ - [engineer flip?](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vXln5XyK1gI) - [drunk
+ supergirl and krypto](https://youtu.be/LbjB7PEuji8?t=26) - [kaiju was so cute
+ hopping out of the van](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSlFLNktqvI) - [social
+ media outrage monkeys](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5t5wlwISB8k)
+</Spoiler>
- last episode of evangelion vibes
- parakeets are studio ghibli?
- processing grief of mother's death: malice vs. peace
-- score is great; adds depth beyond what is being shown on screen
\ No newline at end of file
+- score is great; adds depth beyond what is being shown on screen
---
category: movie
-title: "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"
+title: 'The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring'
date: 2025-11-26
modified: 2025-11-30
rating: 5
- the extended edition is clearly for the lotr nerds. multiple scenes that are probably unnecessary to drive the story forward, but keep the movie closer to the book
- the costumes and set absolutely still hold up
- there are a few pieces of cgi that look a bit goofy now (watcher in the water) but it also mostly holds up
-- if you were to only watch one of the movies, i'd watch this one. you don't see frodo and sam continue on towards mordor, but it's able to evoke some of the emotions the overall story is going for: homesickness, reluctant obligations, duty, and sacrifice.
\ No newline at end of file
+- if you were to only watch one of the movies, i'd watch this one. you don't see frodo and sam continue on towards mordor, but it's able to evoke some of the emotions the overall story is going for: homesickness, reluctant obligations, duty, and sacrifice.
- i dislike that the mystery feels unsolvable unless you follow along the story rails the movie provides. you can't really solve anything with the clues they give you until pretty far into the movie. maybe upon rewatch i'll change my mind on this?
- certainly better than glass onion
- most of the side characters feel underwritten and don't matter
-- still a fun time
\ No newline at end of file
+- still a fun time
- 90 minutes of pure combat, no cuts, no exposition, no preaching. i thought we were getting a rah america movie but this was something else.
- sound design is incredible. the first show of force scene's sound takes your breath away, the gunshots and explosions are disorienting.
-- really puts you in the mindset of what these guys must have gone through. you never want to be in that situation.
\ No newline at end of file
+- really puts you in the mindset of what these guys must have gone through. you never want to be in that situation.
---
category: movie
-title: "Wicked: For Good"
+title: 'Wicked: For Good'
date: 2025-11-25
modified: 2025-11-25
rating: 2
posse:
Letterboxd: https://letterboxd.com/cotsuka/film/wicked-for-good/
---
+
import Spoiler from '@components/ui/spoiler.astro';
- act ii was always the worse act, so i expected this to be worse than the first movie going in
- i really liked the cinematography during, "the girl in the bubble"
<Spoiler>
- - are we supposed to assume boq wanted elphaba to let him die? i mean, sure i doubt being a tin man is a great life
- - fiyero when he first sees elphaba's hideout: "girl, you live like this?"
- - how did fiyero know elphaba would be hiding under the floor?
-</Spoiler>
\ No newline at end of file
+ - are we supposed to assume boq wanted elphaba to let him die? i mean, sure i
+ doubt being a tin man is a great life - fiyero when he first sees elphaba's
+ hideout: "girl, you live like this?" - how did fiyero know elphaba would be
+ hiding under the floor?
+</Spoiler>
---
- they've got pipes
-- fiyero's "dancing through life" is changed for the better
\ No newline at end of file
+- fiyero's "dancing through life" is changed for the better
projects / cotsuka.github.io / commitdiff